* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 35 33 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 35 33 30 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 41 37 34 32 28 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 13 12 13 9 7 3 9 14 11 11 16 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 1 -2 -1 -4 1 0 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 47 38 38 43 37 312 236 231 215 207 186 186 162 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.2 23.9 24.0 24.4 24.4 24.2 24.1 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 119 117 114 104 101 102 107 107 104 103 107 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 74 72 68 65 62 59 53 50 44 42 36 33 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 16 15 15 14 13 11 9 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 55 55 53 54 61 78 78 75 54 34 25 -6 -14 200 MB DIV -2 -1 7 12 17 -22 -12 -31 -32 -37 -16 -15 1 LAND (KM) 650 672 707 760 821 955 1093 1259 1450 1630 1789 1934 2091 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.4 17.0 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.7 113.6 114.6 115.5 117.5 119.5 121.5 123.5 125.5 127.5 129.2 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -9. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -20. -29. -36. -41. -46. -50. -52. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY