* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/20/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 77 81 91 98 101 105 107 104 98 93 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 77 81 91 98 101 105 107 104 98 93 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 73 76 78 80 82 86 90 93 95 96 94 SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 17 15 10 11 9 7 6 8 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 0 2 4 6 1 7 0 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 118 129 124 127 137 120 129 141 99 54 17 30 38 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 161 160 160 159 158 158 155 154 154 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 76 78 75 76 78 78 81 77 77 74 71 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 7 8 9 12 14 15 17 19 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 10 10 12 7 24 40 50 54 51 53 51 54 200 MB DIV 29 9 19 50 71 98 74 99 109 113 81 75 51 LAND (KM) 446 476 511 542 574 637 667 694 745 798 859 932 1033 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.8 12.0 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.2 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.6 100.2 100.8 101.4 102.6 103.5 104.6 106.1 107.6 109.1 110.9 112.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 15 16 16 52 60 54 26 52 58 46 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 20. 17. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 31. 38. 41. 45. 47. 44. 38. 33. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY