* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/20/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 70 80 88 95 100 100 101 100 92 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 65 70 80 88 95 100 100 101 100 92 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 59 60 61 64 68 74 79 83 88 91 91 SHEAR (KT) 18 17 18 15 15 11 10 9 4 5 4 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 0 0 6 2 2 3 1 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 122 117 113 114 119 108 132 122 103 63 98 77 308 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 162 161 160 160 159 158 158 156 155 153 150 143 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -52.2 -51.2 -52.0 -51.1 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 78 74 75 79 82 78 79 75 77 71 67 61 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 19 19 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 5 4 0 4 12 18 32 34 30 37 33 30 30 200 MB DIV 8 5 33 50 73 89 82 101 94 83 55 72 47 LAND (KM) 491 535 581 600 620 668 726 769 815 863 932 1029 1077 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.8 11.6 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.2 13.7 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.4 101.1 101.7 102.2 103.3 104.6 106.0 107.4 109.0 110.9 112.6 114.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 14 16 32 59 53 21 46 60 46 44 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 19. 19. 20. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 25. 33. 40. 45. 45. 46. 45. 37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY