* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 9 3 8 11 15 22 23 22 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 -3 0 -4 0 -2 1 4 0 1 SHEAR DIR 53 82 89 76 97 192 197 209 207 210 206 184 196 SST (C) 25.3 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.8 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.3 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 116 112 106 102 99 98 101 103 101 99 98 95 93 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 63 59 57 57 54 50 46 43 38 34 32 30 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 7 6 5 3 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 60 66 77 86 77 60 60 38 35 8 4 -19 200 MB DIV 4 1 -5 -7 -14 1 -14 -24 -26 -2 -14 -7 -18 LAND (KM) 722 775 837 895 953 1105 1286 1478 1643 1819 1990 2163 2115 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.1 17.8 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.3 116.2 117.2 118.2 120.2 122.2 124.3 126.5 128.7 130.8 132.9 134.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -15. -20. -26. -33. -40. -46. -53. -56. -57. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY