* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 73 77 83 92 99 104 106 104 99 94 89 V (KT) LAND 65 69 73 77 83 92 99 104 106 104 99 94 89 V (KT) LGE mod 65 69 71 73 74 77 83 89 94 98 98 93 84 SHEAR (KT) 20 19 16 16 11 8 9 5 2 9 9 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 1 5 0 6 0 -2 -5 0 2 SHEAR DIR 109 100 92 107 105 105 129 111 43 14 350 355 324 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.7 27.9 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 160 160 159 159 158 155 155 152 143 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 73 74 79 83 80 80 75 76 73 73 66 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 15 17 19 18 19 17 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 8 4 6 11 17 22 42 40 38 44 26 35 19 200 MB DIV 16 48 74 79 99 69 90 72 88 57 45 36 25 LAND (KM) 534 571 610 637 663 702 752 800 850 902 1003 1029 1035 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.7 101.3 101.9 102.5 103.6 105.1 106.6 108.3 110.1 112.2 113.9 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 9 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 14 18 46 58 44 19 61 49 46 34 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 27. 34. 39. 41. 39. 34. 29. 24. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED