* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952010 06/20/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 59 64 66 67 68 66 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 32 39 49 59 64 66 67 68 66 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 21 22 24 28 33 37 40 43 44 SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 20 15 13 8 6 10 19 17 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 3 4 5 2 1 0 -3 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 83 95 95 98 90 95 57 20 334 344 348 336 321 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.8 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 152 154 156 157 161 165 161 154 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 81 84 81 79 80 75 76 71 70 66 65 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 41 42 40 36 26 30 34 30 25 18 2 -31 200 MB DIV 88 87 71 86 81 57 54 57 44 33 50 47 47 LAND (KM) 418 467 522 562 585 641 716 689 670 661 660 705 772 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.8 10.9 12.2 13.2 13.8 14.0 LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.7 90.3 91.1 91.8 93.6 95.9 98.6 101.5 104.2 106.5 108.2 109.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 10 13 14 15 13 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 7 2 4 18 33 18 11 56 47 40 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 25. 33. 39. 44. 48. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 19. 29. 39. 44. 46. 47. 48. 46. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952010 INVEST 06/20/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 86.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952010 INVEST 06/20/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY