* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/21/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 88 93 102 107 109 110 107 107 101 93 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 88 93 102 107 109 110 107 107 101 93 V (KT) LGE mod 70 75 80 83 85 89 93 97 101 103 104 99 90 SHEAR (KT) 17 13 12 12 10 9 8 6 9 5 6 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 1 3 2 3 6 -2 -2 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 92 89 96 107 100 116 95 102 88 69 58 68 350 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.3 27.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 160 160 160 158 156 155 153 147 136 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.3 -51.8 -50.8 -51.8 -51.2 -52.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 77 82 86 84 80 82 78 76 74 70 69 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 17 18 19 20 19 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 3 3 10 22 22 43 58 61 73 70 65 44 28 200 MB DIV 71 87 80 96 101 61 109 81 75 47 49 47 27 LAND (KM) 559 596 632 654 675 726 760 820 876 961 1062 1057 1075 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.7 13.3 13.9 14.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 100.6 101.2 101.8 102.4 103.0 104.3 105.8 107.5 109.4 111.4 113.4 115.1 116.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 17 41 55 54 17 50 54 45 40 26 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 16. 14. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 32. 37. 39. 40. 37. 37. 31. 23. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 36% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY