* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 26 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 8 3 2 7 11 17 19 20 20 26 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 1 0 0 0 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -2 -1 N/A SHEAR DIR 103 32 42 52 183 191 196 191 193 184 187 186 N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.6 24.0 24.2 24.0 24.2 24.3 24.1 24.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 102 101 99 99 103 106 103 105 106 104 107 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 52 49 43 39 36 33 32 30 29 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 83 92 85 73 50 57 40 30 -3 -9 -23 N/A 200 MB DIV -7 1 -5 -18 -18 -13 -30 -24 -13 -16 -14 -34 N/A LAND (KM) 876 938 1006 1076 1151 1367 1598 1811 2013 2201 2146 1920 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.6 17.1 16.7 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.6 118.6 119.7 120.7 123.0 125.4 127.9 130.2 132.4 134.8 137.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -9. -15. -23. -31. -38. -42. -48. -50. -50. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY