* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/21/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 77 81 85 92 95 97 99 96 92 86 78 V (KT) LAND 70 73 77 81 85 92 95 97 99 96 92 86 78 V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 74 76 77 80 84 87 90 92 91 84 72 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 13 15 15 11 12 10 12 5 5 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 3 1 0 6 0 -1 1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 91 96 112 105 111 116 112 95 63 12 348 352 281 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 27.7 26.5 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 159 160 158 156 156 154 149 141 129 114 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 82 83 78 78 75 72 69 64 62 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 18 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 0 8 19 18 32 51 62 65 68 60 45 38 21 200 MB DIV 76 73 88 114 71 77 96 77 55 42 48 33 25 LAND (KM) 587 617 646 670 696 741 789 863 955 1063 1066 1088 1141 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 12.2 12.6 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.2 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.3 102.8 103.5 104.1 105.6 107.1 109.0 111.1 113.0 114.7 116.4 118.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 6 6 7 7 8 10 10 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 35 53 59 56 18 35 59 46 44 34 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 25. 27. 29. 26. 22. 16. 8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY