* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 4 3 2 5 7 11 13 17 14 20 25 28 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 0 -3 -1 -5 0 -3 -3 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 17 351 303 200 189 193 191 198 203 202 202 192 N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.8 23.5 23.4 23.5 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.8 23.7 23.4 23.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 98 97 98 101 100 98 101 99 96 97 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 49 49 43 38 35 36 31 31 30 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 83 92 86 76 58 53 46 25 18 -11 -6 -15 N/A 200 MB DIV 9 -3 -13 -13 -17 -17 -28 -12 -16 -24 -23 -10 N/A LAND (KM) 945 1018 1097 1194 1294 1509 1689 1873 2058 2230 2072 1877 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.2 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.9 120.0 121.2 122.3 124.6 126.8 129.0 131.2 133.3 135.3 137.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -9. -9. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -35. -40. -47. -51. -55. -55. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY