* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/21/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 66 68 72 77 82 84 81 79 75 68 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 66 68 72 77 82 84 81 79 75 68 V (KT) LGE mod 65 63 62 61 61 61 63 67 72 76 76 71 63 SHEAR (KT) 13 13 14 13 10 10 8 6 7 5 6 6 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 1 0 3 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 108 115 106 114 124 108 114 82 64 29 360 31 328 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.8 26.0 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 150 149 148 149 148 144 140 132 124 111 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.6 -52.7 -51.4 -52.1 -51.0 -51.8 -51.1 -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 86 83 81 80 80 78 75 76 74 68 65 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 17 17 18 19 20 19 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 6 14 16 19 31 51 59 68 61 52 38 28 0 200 MB DIV 71 88 109 71 89 103 68 73 51 52 35 23 -23 LAND (KM) 601 627 653 686 707 771 844 913 1000 1069 1049 1115 1214 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.2 13.9 14.9 15.6 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.7 103.4 104.2 105.0 106.6 108.2 110.0 111.8 113.6 115.3 117.3 119.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 53 60 56 50 21 60 50 50 41 21 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 19. 16. 14. 10. 3. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY