* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 71 76 83 89 94 100 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 41 51 61 71 76 83 89 94 100 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 46 57 69 84 98 108 111 SHEAR (KT) 8 13 10 3 2 5 10 7 6 3 5 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -6 0 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 -4 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 132 172 193 230 37 275 350 315 10 333 33 345 38 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 151 150 152 155 156 156 157 161 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 151 151 148 146 146 147 147 146 146 148 143 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 8 7 9 10 11 10 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 80 81 79 77 75 71 70 67 68 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 83 86 84 87 83 71 65 62 65 44 39 16 200 MB DIV 81 79 96 87 92 71 55 22 12 3 6 -8 2 LAND (KM) 247 228 233 246 293 255 155 131 224 331 293 306 154 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.8 68.9 70.0 71.2 72.3 74.5 76.6 78.5 80.2 81.8 83.3 84.6 86.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 61 64 77 89 89 70 85 108 108 100 106 95 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 16. 26. 36. 46. 51. 58. 64. 69. 75. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 76.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 39% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 6.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST 06/21/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY