* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BLAS EP032010 06/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 3 7 12 14 13 14 15 20 23 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 0 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 320 275 188 222 155 185 189 193 187 192 195 191 N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.8 23.7 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.0 24.5 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 101 100 102 103 104 103 108 108 105 105 109 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 4 5 5 N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 48 45 44 40 36 35 31 32 32 33 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 100 90 69 59 57 38 23 -7 -14 -17 -17 N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -16 -18 -15 -13 -30 -17 -5 -27 -22 -30 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 1088 1175 1267 1378 1493 1708 1918 2139 2269 2040 1806 1603 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.4 17.3 17.1 16.7 16.3 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 121.6 122.9 124.1 126.5 128.9 131.4 133.7 135.9 138.1 140.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -16. -23. -28. -32. -35. -36. -39. -37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP032010 BLAS 06/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032010 BLAS 06/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY