* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 82 86 89 94 96 96 94 89 83 75 67 V (KT) LAND 75 79 82 86 89 94 96 96 94 89 83 75 67 V (KT) LGE mod 75 77 78 79 79 79 81 86 90 91 88 78 67 SHEAR (KT) 12 16 17 12 9 9 7 6 8 7 1 3 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 -1 1 0 2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 100 99 101 121 118 104 88 85 30 22 356 8 98 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.3 27.8 26.8 25.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 150 151 150 151 148 147 143 132 118 107 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 2 700-500 MB RH 81 80 82 81 79 77 75 75 71 67 68 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 19 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 3 6 14 23 32 44 59 60 46 45 35 18 -17 200 MB DIV 98 116 82 88 77 80 65 45 39 39 28 3 -13 LAND (KM) 661 697 735 754 776 849 933 1003 1105 1130 1176 1259 1324 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.6 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.5 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.9 103.6 104.3 105.0 105.7 107.5 109.4 111.2 113.0 115.0 117.2 119.2 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 53 57 53 50 17 52 56 49 55 42 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 19. 21. 21. 19. 14. 8. 0. -8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY