* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952010 06/21/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 39 43 46 46 47 47 44 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 34 39 43 46 46 47 47 44 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 27 27 26 24 22 20 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 9 12 6 11 19 22 19 12 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 1 0 2 4 -3 -1 -4 -2 2 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 84 89 83 78 63 59 321 334 320 328 286 260 266 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.1 28.3 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 152 152 156 157 148 137 130 128 127 130 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 82 79 82 80 75 75 72 71 69 68 68 62 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 2 3 3 5 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 13 17 10 6 -1 -27 -39 -34 -34 -11 -15 200 MB DIV 71 59 27 11 30 49 27 26 25 27 39 51 34 LAND (KM) 487 495 495 505 529 510 450 409 387 360 395 465 571 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.4 11.2 12.3 13.6 14.6 15.3 15.4 15.1 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 91.2 92.0 92.8 93.8 94.8 97.2 99.7 101.8 103.6 104.7 105.5 106.2 107.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 11 9 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 19 24 23 27 44 18 32 37 22 11 30 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 16. 24. 31. 35. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 26. 27. 27. 24. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952010 INVEST 06/21/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952010 INVEST 06/21/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY