* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 51 56 59 62 68 74 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 43 51 56 59 62 68 74 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 38 44 51 60 71 83 92 57 SHEAR (KT) 19 15 9 3 9 12 13 13 7 7 3 10 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -4 -1 -1 -4 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 192 210 256 266 237 300 298 308 261 300 275 357 239 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.3 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 154 152 152 155 160 160 160 161 156 142 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 150 150 148 148 149 153 151 150 149 142 129 121 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 83 77 78 76 77 75 70 70 67 67 62 63 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 74 80 78 78 73 63 60 48 56 48 56 39 32 200 MB DIV 71 71 63 54 34 22 2 23 2 7 4 -1 16 LAND (KM) 311 258 223 215 164 55 30 234 348 256 170 20 -42 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.3 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 71.1 72.1 73.2 74.3 76.4 78.5 80.5 82.3 84.0 85.5 86.9 88.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 87 103 102 95 80 92 106 116 109 108 99 54 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 26. 31. 34. 37. 43. 49. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 46% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST 06/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY