* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 100 103 104 106 107 103 97 94 89 74 62 V (KT) LAND 90 96 100 103 104 106 107 103 97 94 89 74 62 V (KT) LGE mod 90 96 99 100 100 101 103 106 107 104 95 82 67 SHEAR (KT) 15 17 13 11 7 7 4 6 9 5 5 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 92 93 109 108 103 95 79 71 59 71 69 150 181 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.5 26.0 24.6 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 149 150 152 151 148 145 140 124 109 101 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -50.8 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -51.3 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 4 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 79 78 77 76 74 72 69 67 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 19 18 18 19 20 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 9 12 18 25 30 49 57 50 45 36 32 5 -25 200 MB DIV 103 62 62 65 89 57 61 28 45 33 4 -23 -30 LAND (KM) 682 716 738 771 809 911 984 1070 1145 1172 1229 1274 1344 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.6 11.7 12.2 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.2 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 103.6 104.3 105.0 105.7 106.4 108.4 110.4 112.3 114.2 116.3 118.4 120.4 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 56 54 50 17 16 68 49 57 48 31 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 4. 6. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 13. 7. 4. -1. -16. -28. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY