* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952010 06/22/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 44 45 47 46 43 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 41 44 45 47 46 43 41 38 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 44 44 43 40 38 34 SHEAR (KT) 12 15 12 11 9 7 10 11 12 11 16 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 -2 -4 -1 -3 0 -1 1 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 69 78 87 86 110 199 303 296 303 243 244 245 218 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.5 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 153 156 155 149 140 136 132 129 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.3 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 10 8 10 8 7 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 77 75 76 71 73 69 71 67 65 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 19 18 7 -1 -21 -38 -41 -35 -13 3 21 200 MB DIV 68 33 17 40 40 37 54 17 58 34 68 40 50 LAND (KM) 484 477 479 480 504 446 382 368 345 350 364 401 442 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.9 10.2 10.6 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.7 14.5 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 91.8 92.6 93.4 94.3 95.2 97.3 99.3 101.1 102.4 103.4 104.4 105.6 106.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 9 6 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 25 24 21 22 46 19 16 17 36 31 14 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 19. 20. 22. 21. 18. 16. 13. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952010 INVEST 06/22/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952010 INVEST 06/22/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED