* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 52 62 68 75 82 88 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 52 62 68 75 82 88 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 50 64 80 98 109 56 SHEAR (KT) 13 4 2 8 5 8 9 5 3 7 6 10 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -4 -1 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 206 221 191 196 237 322 321 23 340 24 22 59 24 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 152 150 152 155 156 156 156 161 159 150 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 148 145 147 149 148 147 146 149 148 138 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 8 10 10 11 10 12 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 79 76 77 77 76 71 67 68 68 67 67 65 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 86 83 91 93 85 74 67 62 63 56 51 33 21 200 MB DIV 81 77 60 50 44 44 26 22 20 7 -4 -1 8 LAND (KM) 282 267 259 232 182 86 163 332 275 282 174 11 -127 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.6 19.0 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.2 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.5 77.7 79.6 81.4 83.0 84.5 85.9 87.4 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 97 93 84 73 71 95 110 111 100 87 88 63 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 37. 43. 50. 57. 63. 68. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 83.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST 06/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY