* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 94 97 98 99 99 99 98 93 89 77 64 52 V (KT) LAND 90 94 97 98 99 99 99 98 93 89 77 64 52 V (KT) LGE mod 90 94 97 97 97 97 99 103 105 102 89 72 56 SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 12 9 4 4 4 4 4 6 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 4 1 2 2 SHEAR DIR 89 103 101 109 118 131 24 52 74 196 206 218 232 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.2 25.6 24.4 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 149 150 152 151 149 145 136 119 106 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 82 82 79 77 76 73 72 71 72 71 63 59 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 18 17 17 16 17 17 16 18 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 5 13 17 27 39 52 49 38 41 25 18 -14 -33 200 MB DIV 75 66 47 59 49 35 25 29 14 21 15 -30 -15 LAND (KM) 716 733 756 793 834 943 1041 1152 1184 1226 1289 1323 1376 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.5 14.3 15.3 16.2 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.0 105.7 106.6 107.4 109.4 111.5 113.4 115.3 117.3 119.4 121.1 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 49 16 18 45 56 51 56 45 22 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 3. -1. -13. -26. -38. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY