* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952010 06/22/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 32 34 36 40 39 42 43 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 32 34 36 40 39 42 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 27 30 32 32 32 31 29 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 15 13 11 9 8 4 9 14 9 14 11 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -4 -3 0 0 2 4 5 4 SHEAR DIR 73 85 93 100 135 269 285 278 284 239 249 232 256 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 152 153 155 157 153 148 143 138 133 130 125 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 7 700-500 MB RH 82 82 80 77 78 73 72 70 70 66 66 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 2 3 4 4 7 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 17 9 4 -12 -34 -46 -33 -20 9 16 33 200 MB DIV 24 17 38 60 60 48 43 33 42 67 43 40 6 LAND (KM) 455 451 450 467 469 397 344 325 318 337 353 363 398 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.5 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 92.3 93.1 93.9 94.8 95.7 97.6 99.4 100.8 101.8 102.8 103.9 105.1 106.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 7 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 19 13 38 30 18 13 17 27 35 11 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. 3. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 15. 14. 17. 18. 14. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952010 INVEST 06/22/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952010 INVEST 06/22/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY