* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 51 61 66 74 80 87 91 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 42 51 61 66 74 80 57 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 32 37 43 51 62 76 90 66 39 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 2 8 11 9 15 4 9 6 10 7 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 2 5 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -5 0 -4 3 SHEAR DIR 326 355 246 287 319 343 351 25 5 64 48 104 59 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 154 157 158 156 159 159 152 144 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 149 148 147 148 149 149 146 149 147 140 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.2 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 10 9 11 9 12 9 13 10 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 79 75 71 70 67 68 65 66 62 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 89 94 86 73 74 60 69 56 55 43 32 27 200 MB DIV 52 57 55 52 42 19 19 14 16 13 -8 2 3 LAND (KM) 272 259 223 162 113 88 236 324 268 224 74 -69 -124 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.3 73.4 74.5 75.6 76.7 78.7 80.5 82.2 83.9 85.4 86.8 88.1 89.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 92 84 72 71 92 71 121 95 99 88 75 67 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 26. 36. 41. 49. 55. 62. 66. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 82.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST 06/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY