* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/22/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 91 92 93 97 97 96 92 88 75 66 55 V (KT) LAND 90 90 91 92 93 97 97 96 92 88 75 66 55 V (KT) LGE mod 90 90 90 89 90 93 98 104 104 98 86 71 59 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 10 8 3 5 5 3 2 5 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 1 0 0 -3 1 3 5 2 2 6 SHEAR DIR 108 101 93 111 118 63 33 36 65 101 164 140 239 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 27.8 26.6 25.3 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 152 152 152 150 142 130 116 110 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.1 -51.8 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 80 79 76 75 72 71 71 74 72 67 58 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 18 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 8 12 24 34 39 43 38 36 26 23 3 -11 -27 200 MB DIV 56 42 47 50 42 52 26 42 0 38 17 -13 -29 LAND (KM) 759 780 810 849 893 999 1125 1211 1254 1338 1405 1452 1470 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.8 106.6 107.5 108.4 110.5 112.7 114.8 116.9 118.9 120.8 122.3 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 16 18 52 66 49 62 49 37 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 7. 6. 2. -1. -15. -24. -35. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED