* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 52 64 71 79 86 93 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 42 52 64 71 79 86 55 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 55 71 91 106 67 39 SHEAR (KT) 1 7 5 8 6 8 5 2 7 5 9 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -3 1 -2 -3 -5 -3 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 326 227 267 308 344 322 14 22 55 41 62 28 72 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 152 152 153 154 154 154 161 161 154 149 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 145 146 146 146 145 143 143 150 149 142 137 133 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 9 11 10 11 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 79 79 79 76 75 71 69 70 69 69 69 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 87 91 92 78 74 72 68 68 56 62 40 36 30 200 MB DIV 51 53 56 55 58 25 13 20 14 6 9 7 5 LAND (KM) 285 241 200 158 158 232 298 218 217 201 49 -94 -82 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.5 80.1 81.6 83.0 84.4 85.7 87.1 88.5 89.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 73 74 80 93 110 113 109 92 97 89 84 60 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 17. 27. 39. 46. 54. 61. 68. 71. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 86.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION AL932010 INVEST 06/22/2010 00 UTC ** TIME 0-12h 0-24h 0-36h 0-48h EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT (PrSEFoNe-model) CLIMO (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- PROBABILITY BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB (%) 0 0 0 0 <--- FULL MODEL RAN NORMALLY