* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 84 85 87 90 94 97 93 85 75 65 60 V (KT) LAND 85 84 84 85 87 90 94 97 93 85 75 65 60 V (KT) LGE mod 85 84 84 85 86 89 96 101 100 92 79 67 58 SHEAR (KT) 13 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 2 1 2 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 2 -2 -4 0 1 4 3 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 93 84 90 106 115 58 82 87 62 257 77 95 40 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.2 25.9 25.1 24.8 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 152 152 152 152 146 136 122 113 110 108 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 78 75 73 71 68 72 73 72 69 62 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 17 18 20 19 19 17 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 15 24 30 39 35 39 43 27 15 -8 -24 -33 200 MB DIV 41 56 51 52 48 23 26 22 25 57 -8 6 -30 LAND (KM) 775 820 870 921 969 1079 1217 1246 1284 1357 1428 1490 1564 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.3 12.7 13.3 14.1 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.8 107.7 108.7 109.7 111.9 114.2 116.1 117.9 119.6 121.4 122.9 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 9 9 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 44 56 46 45 51 49 24 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -21. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 9. 12. 8. 0. -10. -20. -25. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/22/10 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY