* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952010 06/22/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 39 42 44 47 50 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 35 39 42 44 47 50 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 31 33 35 35 34 34 34 35 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 11 6 0 6 12 9 11 7 8 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 74 87 121 143 150 325 297 302 283 223 252 134 149 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 153 154 155 157 153 150 146 145 144 145 148 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 72 70 67 68 71 70 71 68 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 4 7 10 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 -5 -10 -20 -43 -52 -49 -37 -13 6 29 40 200 MB DIV 34 41 51 36 40 36 11 40 27 25 32 39 57 LAND (KM) 442 455 477 525 490 448 436 458 516 592 657 753 831 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 12.0 12.6 12.9 12.9 12.7 12.6 12.4 12.6 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.5 94.4 95.5 96.6 98.6 100.1 101.3 102.6 103.8 105.3 106.8 108.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 11 11 9 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 15 27 34 37 33 14 32 34 20 13 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 1. 5. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 14. 17. 19. 22. 25. 24. 27. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952010 INVEST 06/22/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 85.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952010 INVEST 06/22/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY