* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 43 54 64 71 76 84 88 92 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 43 54 64 71 76 84 69 58 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 44 56 71 89 102 84 67 SHEAR (KT) 6 5 8 7 5 10 5 10 0 9 3 12 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -6 -4 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 224 244 310 329 316 347 13 22 81 20 64 21 244 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.5 28.8 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 151 153 153 154 155 155 161 159 147 139 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 145 146 144 143 144 144 149 145 133 125 122 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 10 10 9 11 9 12 9 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 79 80 76 73 72 71 68 71 69 72 69 65 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 91 95 83 81 81 75 75 65 61 56 47 20 22 200 MB DIV 59 51 41 38 24 1 12 8 11 13 10 -4 16 LAND (KM) 266 216 178 162 182 263 320 265 296 216 89 -34 29 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.3 77.3 78.2 79.0 80.5 81.7 83.0 84.3 85.4 86.5 87.4 88.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 74 78 90 106 119 77 108 101 105 102 82 42 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 3. 6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 18. 29. 39. 46. 51. 59. 63. 67. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 93.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)