* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 80 83 85 88 90 83 72 58 48 42 V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 80 83 85 88 90 83 72 58 48 42 V (KT) LGE mod 80 78 77 78 79 83 88 92 87 76 64 53 45 SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 8 4 2 4 1 7 9 6 8 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 0 2 1 3 11 3 0 4 2 7 SHEAR DIR 93 110 118 119 82 7 30 112 141 184 186 262 308 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.5 26.0 25.1 25.0 24.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 152 151 152 148 139 123 113 112 110 103 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.2 -51.8 -51.7 -52.3 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 69 69 69 70 71 70 63 55 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 17 17 18 19 17 18 20 18 17 14 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 28 37 39 34 37 28 24 6 -15 -23 -40 200 MB DIV 47 34 39 44 24 -8 42 0 15 -2 -18 -38 -49 LAND (KM) 810 858 912 961 1016 1157 1214 1268 1351 1406 1490 1571 1644 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.9 14.7 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.8 108.7 109.8 110.9 113.2 115.3 117.4 119.5 121.2 122.7 124.2 125.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 44 55 44 41 52 47 33 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -2. 0. 3. 0. -1. -6. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 10. 3. -8. -22. -32. -38. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY