* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052010 06/23/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 47 51 53 52 53 52 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 37 40 43 47 51 53 52 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 41 42 42 43 43 42 40 38 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 4 3 4 5 12 9 11 8 10 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 3 2 -1 -2 2 3 5 4 2 SHEAR DIR 88 112 139 169 207 246 255 212 241 239 259 272 292 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 155 156 155 154 152 148 144 138 134 131 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 9 8 11 8 11 8 11 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 76 74 71 70 68 68 71 67 69 61 64 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 5 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -2 -3 -10 -19 -26 -21 -7 5 26 29 39 47 200 MB DIV 52 40 30 41 44 13 26 18 25 24 17 5 33 LAND (KM) 400 395 411 415 355 284 237 208 186 163 133 77 49 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.2 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.8 17.7 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.0 93.8 94.6 95.4 96.1 97.4 98.4 99.3 100.4 101.5 102.7 103.7 104.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 9 8 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 11 25 29 6 10 36 17 22 15 11 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 33. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 17. 21. 23. 22. 23. 22. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 FIVE 06/23/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 FIVE 06/23/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED