* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 51 60 68 74 80 85 86 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 41 51 60 68 74 61 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 30 34 41 51 66 82 73 42 47 SHEAR (KT) 5 12 12 9 11 10 9 11 7 9 8 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -2 0 -3 -3 -6 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 303 307 327 329 338 8 17 36 33 34 1 33 310 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.1 28.4 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 151 152 152 154 154 157 163 152 141 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 147 145 144 143 144 144 147 152 140 129 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 10 12 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 81 77 74 72 73 69 71 70 71 70 69 66 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 94 84 85 90 85 74 73 65 65 48 34 30 28 200 MB DIV 54 50 42 21 8 17 18 17 19 23 10 -1 24 LAND (KM) 245 201 180 191 218 305 270 239 269 102 -45 -52 63 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 76.0 77.0 78.0 78.8 79.5 80.9 82.2 83.7 85.0 86.5 87.8 89.2 90.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 77 84 104 116 118 113 94 102 95 89 63 15 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 26. 35. 43. 49. 55. 60. 61. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 99.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)