* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 74 76 76 77 81 77 73 64 53 46 40 V (KT) LAND 75 73 74 76 76 77 81 77 73 64 53 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 75 73 72 73 74 76 78 77 74 68 59 52 45 SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 5 2 4 2 3 3 3 4 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 0 1 3 4 2 1 2 3 6 SHEAR DIR 98 106 104 96 246 343 71 284 140 192 178 314 6 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.1 27.0 25.8 25.2 25.1 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 151 152 151 145 134 121 114 113 109 105 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 69 68 67 71 70 70 68 62 54 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 19 18 18 19 19 18 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 23 20 34 35 38 40 37 26 5 -11 -22 -29 -40 200 MB DIV 38 39 38 14 0 31 4 15 5 -34 -12 -22 -23 LAND (KM) 849 899 948 1008 1079 1207 1232 1304 1396 1465 1544 1612 1676 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.8 13.5 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.5 109.5 110.7 111.9 114.2 116.2 118.2 120.1 121.8 123.4 124.7 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 56 47 41 45 50 47 21 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 2. -2. -11. -22. -29. -35. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY