* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052010 06/23/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 55 59 63 64 64 60 57 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 50 55 59 63 64 64 60 57 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 50 55 58 57 56 56 54 52 50 SHEAR (KT) 11 8 2 3 3 2 7 11 9 14 10 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 5 5 8 6 0 1 0 3 7 7 7 SHEAR DIR 87 100 81 99 200 225 209 195 161 164 160 150 127 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 155 156 155 152 148 145 142 140 137 137 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 10 8 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 77 74 71 68 66 67 68 67 70 63 64 60 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -1 -5 -17 -25 -28 -19 -2 16 11 29 11 21 200 MB DIV 48 22 35 40 18 3 23 36 28 30 28 10 38 LAND (KM) 365 389 423 390 358 286 288 312 308 289 226 218 240 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.5 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.7 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.4 95.1 95.9 96.6 98.1 99.5 100.5 101.1 101.6 102.0 102.2 102.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 23 28 28 4 33 9 10 10 20 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 20. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 20. 24. 28. 29. 29. 25. 22. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 FIVE 06/23/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 FIVE 06/23/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY