* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 54 64 71 79 82 89 89 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 54 64 71 79 47 34 37 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 44 56 73 90 54 35 44 SHEAR (KT) 8 10 7 10 11 4 9 5 9 3 11 1 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -5 -3 -4 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 295 321 312 337 343 46 29 76 45 114 15 48 348 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 151 151 153 154 156 159 159 147 143 140 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 143 143 144 144 145 149 149 135 130 127 127 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 -52.3 -51.7 -52.4 -51.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 9 11 9 12 9 13 9 12 10 700-500 MB RH 78 74 73 73 70 67 70 69 70 69 71 68 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 88 90 95 93 76 81 74 73 53 45 33 38 45 200 MB DIV 31 47 28 13 8 21 21 32 13 22 17 29 2 LAND (KM) 241 207 199 223 253 293 240 253 193 26 -127 -41 97 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.5 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.5 78.3 79.1 79.9 81.4 82.8 84.2 85.7 87.2 88.6 90.0 91.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 78 89 105 116 120 113 99 106 97 50 0 18 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 29. 39. 46. 54. 57. 64. 64. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 101.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)