* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 91 93 93 95 92 88 76 65 53 43 37 V (KT) LAND 85 88 91 93 93 95 92 88 76 65 53 43 37 V (KT) LGE mod 85 88 90 92 94 94 90 81 71 61 52 44 37 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 2 1 3 3 3 4 4 2 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 1 7 6 7 7 SHEAR DIR 94 101 47 113 276 314 139 145 211 273 292 117 163 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.2 27.2 25.9 25.1 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 151 147 136 122 114 111 110 108 105 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -51.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 68 68 67 67 68 66 69 63 59 56 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 20 19 18 21 21 23 21 21 19 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 22 36 41 40 38 44 32 29 13 1 -6 -23 -33 200 MB DIV 22 30 0 -7 -8 49 19 36 0 4 -21 -17 -13 LAND (KM) 888 951 1023 1086 1158 1209 1284 1369 1434 1513 1611 1688 1745 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.2 12.5 12.7 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.8 111.0 112.2 113.3 115.6 117.9 119.8 121.6 123.2 124.6 125.6 126.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 11 12 12 11 9 9 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 43 41 46 46 47 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 2. 5. 2. 2. -1. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 10. 7. 3. -9. -20. -32. -42. -48. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/23/10 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY