* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/23/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 59 62 66 71 75 78 77 77 74 68 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 59 62 66 71 75 78 77 77 74 68 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 57 63 67 73 76 78 79 78 75 74 71 SHEAR (KT) 10 3 3 2 0 2 5 5 12 7 12 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 7 8 10 7 2 0 2 4 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 101 94 66 158 157 337 133 146 155 137 109 114 126 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 155 156 156 154 151 149 146 143 143 143 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 11 8 10 9 12 10 11 8 700-500 MB RH 76 70 67 65 66 61 68 64 65 59 62 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -13 -24 -31 -28 -38 -19 -10 0 6 -2 -6 -8 200 MB DIV 16 19 34 21 -2 5 3 6 13 -3 -6 30 34 LAND (KM) 388 423 402 374 361 355 372 387 373 366 341 321 289 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 94.4 95.1 95.8 96.6 97.4 98.8 99.8 100.6 101.2 101.5 101.4 101.4 101.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 6 4 4 3 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 11 23 27 30 13 16 31 12 12 12 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 9. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 21. 26. 30. 33. 32. 32. 29. 23. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/23/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/23/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY