* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEST AL832010 06/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 48 57 62 69 74 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 48 57 54 52 56 61 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 48 60 51 62 73 79 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 15 12 7 4 2 2 3 5 6 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 285 287 299 318 344 327 8 77 41 340 8 294 279 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.1 28.4 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 154 156 156 157 161 152 141 137 141 144 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 146 146 145 147 150 139 127 123 124 125 125 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 11 9 11 10 12 11 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 67 67 68 65 67 69 65 63 61 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 77 90 91 79 80 90 78 68 46 24 24 8 15 200 MB DIV 40 24 16 20 17 20 33 10 16 16 15 5 8 LAND (KM) 164 196 253 314 323 293 291 141 -1 22 166 261 331 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.8 22.9 23.6 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 79.5 80.4 81.2 81.9 83.3 84.7 86.0 87.0 88.0 89.0 89.7 90.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 108 119 87 123 117 113 114 97 24 0 15 33 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 23. 32. 37. 44. 49. 53. 54. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL832010 TEST 06/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 110.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL832010 TEST 06/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL832010 TEST 06/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)