* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 32 40 50 60 66 73 78 86 88 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 32 40 50 60 66 53 35 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 33 40 51 65 63 38 37 46 SHEAR (KT) 10 13 13 13 8 4 7 8 12 6 10 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 3 1 7 SHEAR DIR 285 287 303 323 356 16 55 63 67 48 63 22 57 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.2 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 154 154 153 159 161 159 157 154 154 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 144 145 144 143 148 150 148 146 142 142 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 9 9 11 10 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 70 68 69 69 71 70 71 68 68 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 77 91 92 79 75 88 67 63 41 26 30 33 40 200 MB DIV 40 26 20 19 18 22 30 16 4 7 -3 18 23 LAND (KM) 164 215 276 297 249 169 140 174 68 -31 -92 24 66 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.6 79.5 80.3 81.1 81.8 83.1 84.4 85.8 87.2 88.5 90.0 91.4 93.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 108 116 106 85 69 85 94 91 85 65 31 1 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 15. 25. 35. 41. 48. 53. 61. 63. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 96.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/23/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)