* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/23/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 69 74 78 83 87 88 87 84 79 75 70 V (KT) LAND 55 63 69 74 78 83 87 88 87 84 79 75 70 V (KT) LGE mod 55 64 71 78 84 92 96 96 93 88 83 79 75 SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 1 2 6 8 13 13 15 12 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 8 11 10 4 1 3 0 2 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 86 54 81 64 23 77 130 123 127 131 139 112 110 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 156 154 152 149 146 143 142 141 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 65 65 65 62 63 63 63 60 62 59 65 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -30 -35 -35 -41 -36 -17 -11 0 9 1 17 -2 200 MB DIV 26 26 29 10 12 17 0 6 -4 13 17 33 41 LAND (KM) 427 400 386 378 370 388 397 393 395 383 349 318 307 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.6 96.3 97.0 97.8 98.5 99.7 100.6 101.2 101.7 101.9 101.8 101.8 102.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 28 32 24 14 13 35 12 12 15 21 16 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -4. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 23. 28. 32. 33. 32. 29. 24. 20. 15. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/23/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 73% is 6.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 51% is 6.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 45% is 7.9 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 28% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/23/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY