* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 52 61 69 75 83 87 90 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 52 61 54 36 30 37 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 41 52 53 35 30 40 51 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 9 4 7 8 7 5 10 3 8 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 2 -2 2 0 2 10 SHEAR DIR 266 291 312 346 307 26 107 61 99 49 109 29 5 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 154 154 159 161 159 161 157 155 152 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 146 146 144 143 148 150 149 150 145 142 139 133 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -51.4 -52.1 -51.6 -52.5 -51.7 -52.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 11 12 9 12 9 12 9 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 70 71 68 66 68 70 70 73 71 73 70 69 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 5 7 5 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 91 94 84 81 87 87 83 64 54 39 39 29 37 200 MB DIV 20 21 16 34 15 21 42 -5 -1 8 36 16 19 LAND (KM) 184 259 300 258 207 154 171 107 -31 -137 -16 44 91 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.0 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.4 81.3 82.1 82.8 84.2 85.5 87.0 88.5 89.8 91.1 92.4 94.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 120 77 114 107 93 94 91 85 69 31 0 4 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 31. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 27. 36. 44. 50. 58. 62. 65. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 102.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/24/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)