* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 92 94 94 90 86 74 66 59 53 47 38 V (KT) LAND 90 92 92 94 94 90 86 74 66 59 53 47 38 V (KT) LGE mod 90 93 94 95 94 89 80 72 64 58 53 48 44 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 1 1 3 6 6 4 5 1 6 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 7 5 1 -3 -1 1 4 1 3 5 SHEAR DIR 80 56 252 206 188 146 145 163 5 308 62 98 91 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.2 25.8 25.2 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 150 148 136 121 115 114 112 109 105 101 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -51.0 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 67 69 69 69 63 57 52 51 49 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 20 21 22 20 21 18 18 17 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 39 36 40 34 35 25 22 11 -8 -13 -20 200 MB DIV -12 -21 -14 15 49 12 42 -6 -2 -11 -31 -27 -34 LAND (KM) 1015 1082 1158 1196 1219 1299 1390 1472 1575 1650 1710 1743 1775 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.9 16.2 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.0 112.2 113.3 114.5 115.6 118.0 120.0 121.9 123.7 124.9 125.7 126.4 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 45 46 47 48 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -21. -27. -32. -37. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 4. 4. 0. -4. -16. -24. -31. -37. -43. -52. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/24/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY