* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/24/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 65 68 71 77 80 78 77 74 69 67 63 V (KT) LAND 55 61 65 68 71 77 80 78 77 74 69 67 63 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 69 72 78 81 82 80 76 74 72 69 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 2 3 4 5 8 13 8 10 17 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 7 8 8 8 3 2 0 2 2 1 2 8 SHEAR DIR 45 93 304 353 39 132 144 169 146 105 94 115 110 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 155 155 152 149 145 141 139 139 138 136 136 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 10 10 8 11 8 10 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 62 62 67 64 67 62 69 63 66 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 4 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -38 -38 -47 -49 -30 -19 1 25 19 33 35 34 200 MB DIV 24 27 13 12 12 -1 15 20 17 12 16 41 49 LAND (KM) 391 383 375 375 388 401 390 382 366 350 310 290 271 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 97.4 98.2 99.0 99.7 100.7 101.6 102.1 102.2 102.3 102.3 102.3 102.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 32 19 13 24 35 12 14 23 17 12 10 9 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 16. 22. 25. 23. 22. 19. 14. 12. 8. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 43% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 32% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY