* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/24/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 65 66 71 71 70 68 64 59 54 53 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 65 66 71 71 70 68 64 59 54 53 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 64 65 66 68 68 67 65 62 59 56 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 5 15 10 13 15 19 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 10 8 6 5 1 3 5 3 4 8 7 SHEAR DIR 316 271 290 12 132 154 155 157 133 134 110 120 98 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 152 151 147 143 140 139 137 138 136 135 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 66 67 64 63 65 69 70 67 69 68 72 69 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 5 850 MB ENV VOR -45 -45 -49 -47 -40 -10 -2 18 28 23 33 39 39 200 MB DIV 39 15 5 19 26 13 35 20 17 43 58 69 55 LAND (KM) 374 366 364 369 378 397 408 405 390 359 340 311 298 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.9 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 97.5 98.3 99.1 99.8 100.4 101.3 102.0 102.4 102.5 102.5 102.5 102.5 102.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 22 32 14 13 19 17 12 11 10 9 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. -1. -6. -7. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY