* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 54 65 70 77 80 83 84 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 45 54 65 41 31 37 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 35 43 54 37 30 39 48 58 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 11 11 5 11 2 11 1 9 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -3 -4 -3 0 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 286 317 307 343 359 93 56 22 23 131 332 272 355 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 154 154 154 159 161 154 149 144 144 147 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 144 146 145 145 149 152 144 137 131 130 131 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 9 12 9 12 9 13 10 13 10 700-500 MB RH 71 69 68 70 71 70 73 71 69 65 62 63 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 7 6 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 87 83 96 103 88 95 75 61 43 41 36 39 41 200 MB DIV 23 41 33 39 31 48 21 27 6 43 10 17 10 LAND (KM) 233 284 285 245 208 187 198 17 -124 -32 100 241 286 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.2 20.0 20.5 20.9 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.4 81.2 82.0 82.7 84.2 85.8 87.4 88.9 90.2 91.4 92.7 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 117 101 75 77 92 95 91 78 0 15 3 30 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 20. 29. 40. 45. 52. 55. 58. 59. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 92.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)