* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/24/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 74 76 78 75 73 70 63 58 53 48 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 74 76 78 75 73 70 63 58 53 48 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 71 72 72 71 70 68 65 62 60 57 53 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 7 3 1 8 16 12 15 22 20 20 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 4 5 7 4 0 4 1 4 3 9 6 SHEAR DIR 277 290 335 331 166 144 157 148 122 126 126 99 85 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 151 149 145 141 138 135 136 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -51.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 10 8 9 8 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 65 65 71 71 71 67 73 70 74 70 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 6 7 8 8 7 9 8 7 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -50 -48 -43 -32 -17 -1 24 31 47 52 53 37 200 MB DIV 14 21 34 50 38 39 18 33 34 62 43 35 12 LAND (KM) 366 367 382 400 419 439 444 460 438 416 381 349 303 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 LONG(DEG W) 98.3 99.1 99.8 100.5 101.1 102.0 102.8 103.3 103.4 103.4 103.3 103.0 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 15 14 22 14 24 17 15 17 20 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 10. 8. 5. -2. -7. -12. -17. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY