* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 32 40 50 59 66 69 73 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 32 40 50 38 30 33 37 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 39 33 29 33 40 48 56 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 15 13 11 11 6 8 7 12 7 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 -1 -3 1 0 -2 -3 -2 4 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 318 310 341 1 25 17 42 350 15 301 331 314 336 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 154 157 159 161 157 151 143 138 142 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 144 148 149 151 147 139 130 124 126 129 131 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 10 9 12 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 72 69 73 73 68 66 63 60 59 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 4 6 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 90 89 96 93 86 90 71 50 51 40 56 39 32 200 MB DIV 44 32 37 29 20 24 47 27 21 33 7 9 19 LAND (KM) 246 195 149 118 129 184 47 -88 -73 50 173 281 354 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.5 18.2 19.0 20.0 21.0 21.7 22.2 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.3 83.0 83.7 84.4 85.7 87.2 88.6 89.8 90.8 91.8 92.7 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 9 60 91 94 90 86 61 14 5 15 42 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 25. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 7. 15. 25. 34. 41. 44. 48. 49. 50. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/24/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)