* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/24/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 78 82 86 85 82 78 71 65 60 56 53 V (KT) LAND 70 74 78 82 86 85 82 78 71 65 60 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 70 74 76 78 79 78 76 71 66 62 59 55 51 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 4 4 6 15 18 16 19 17 22 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 7 7 7 4 2 3 1 8 4 8 7 SHEAR DIR 318 359 73 147 174 150 145 119 127 111 106 100 93 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 147 144 140 136 136 136 135 135 136 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 70 71 73 67 70 69 75 71 72 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -47 -43 -31 -20 -7 15 31 41 53 66 74 51 200 MB DIV 14 43 62 37 29 47 28 21 53 47 51 30 31 LAND (KM) 371 382 398 412 427 446 458 456 447 427 383 355 313 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.8 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 99.7 100.4 101.0 101.5 102.4 103.1 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.4 103.1 102.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 14 19 30 25 23 14 14 16 19 19 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 15. 12. 8. 1. -5. -10. -14. -17. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/24/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY