* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/25/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 135 142 141 135 126 96 72 53 37 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 135 142 141 135 126 96 72 53 37 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 135 137 131 121 111 91 75 62 52 43 37 33 30 SHEAR (KT) 2 2 11 12 15 10 4 6 2 3 7 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 -3 -2 -2 0 12 9 11 8 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 271 187 104 103 130 176 195 204 149 179 131 132 114 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.2 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.7 24.6 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 146 142 135 127 114 110 109 106 104 107 105 101 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -50.8 -51.5 -50.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 62 63 61 63 60 56 56 48 48 46 43 40 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 24 26 26 27 23 21 20 18 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 17 19 17 23 23 29 24 26 27 34 34 200 MB DIV 19 -10 -40 -6 -30 -36 29 -22 1 -6 -8 20 -6 LAND (KM) 1249 1272 1304 1335 1375 1409 1467 1522 1575 1627 1705 1745 1746 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.5 16.1 16.1 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.4 117.4 118.4 119.4 121.0 122.4 123.5 124.5 125.2 125.8 126.3 126.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 5 5 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 51 40 23 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -11. -17. -32. -47. -60. -71. -80. -86. -92. -96. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 10. 15. 15. 13. 7. 1. -3. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 6. 0. -9. -39. -63. -82. -98.-109.-119.-127.-131. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/25/10 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY