* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DARBY EP052010 06/25/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 85 90 93 93 91 84 78 72 64 58 51 46 V (KT) LAND 80 85 90 93 93 91 84 78 72 64 58 51 46 V (KT) LGE mod 80 85 88 89 89 86 79 71 64 59 55 51 48 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 5 9 22 20 23 21 24 24 25 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 5 10 12 8 1 7 1 1 4 7 1 2 SHEAR DIR 344 70 123 124 129 150 137 127 110 116 107 96 87 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 146 144 141 139 136 134 134 135 135 134 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.9 -50.9 -51.7 -51.0 -51.7 -50.8 -51.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 10 8 10 8 8 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 68 70 71 71 71 65 67 70 74 74 78 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 8 8 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -39 -32 -20 -17 4 15 25 44 53 66 61 66 200 MB DIV 40 55 31 33 47 31 46 53 43 58 33 20 40 LAND (KM) 367 381 394 406 418 454 475 470 427 389 380 380 389 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 99.7 100.4 101.0 101.5 102.0 102.8 103.4 103.9 103.9 103.7 103.2 103.2 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 26 29 16 26 15 20 19 19 20 20 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 13. 11. 4. -2. -8. -16. -22. -29. -34. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052010 DARBY 06/25/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY