* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932010 06/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 56 65 71 75 75 76 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 49 36 30 35 35 36 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 44 32 28 34 42 49 56 SHEAR (KT) 12 14 17 10 13 14 7 4 13 8 14 6 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 0 -3 -3 0 -4 -1 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 339 357 15 13 22 35 15 5 328 333 302 313 285 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 28.7 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 156 158 161 161 154 146 138 135 137 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 147 148 149 153 153 143 134 124 120 121 123 123 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 12 12 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 77 77 77 73 72 66 64 62 60 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 6 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 88 84 86 93 87 72 46 54 48 57 50 39 36 200 MB DIV 53 48 47 53 37 35 17 26 17 4 8 14 14 LAND (KM) 202 143 112 82 103 163 -1 -131 -62 82 189 299 377 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.6 18.5 19.5 20.6 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.4 83.2 84.0 84.7 86.3 87.6 88.7 89.6 90.2 90.6 91.1 91.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 32 90 94 90 65 0 18 4 22 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 463 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 20. 25. 29. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 31. 40. 46. 50. 50. 51. 48. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932010 INVEST 06/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932010 INVEST 06/25/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL932010 INVEST 06/25/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)