* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * CELIA EP042010 06/25/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 143 139 131 116 89 66 49 36 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 140 143 139 131 116 89 66 49 36 26 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 140 139 131 119 107 86 69 55 46 39 35 32 29 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 10 12 13 7 3 4 4 9 13 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 3 0 -2 4 16 10 8 2 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 100 81 134 142 171 237 201 294 40 87 113 101 109 SST (C) 28.2 27.7 27.1 26.4 25.7 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 141 135 128 120 111 110 108 105 104 105 105 102 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.5 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 57 60 59 56 58 47 48 47 46 47 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 24 26 28 25 24 21 21 19 17 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 31 12 12 11 7 7 10 13 5 7 18 32 40 200 MB DIV -14 -38 -25 -20 -63 -11 3 -19 0 -10 19 -5 0 LAND (KM) 1278 1313 1358 1387 1406 1431 1513 1563 1575 1602 1641 1684 1718 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.6 118.6 119.5 120.4 121.8 123.2 124.1 124.5 124.9 125.2 125.7 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 7 6 3 2 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 51 39 22 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -15. -23. -41. -56. -69. -79. -88. -94.-100.-104. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. 0. 3. 6. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 9. 4. 0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. -1. -9. -24. -51. -74. -91.-104.-114.-124.-130.-138. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042010 CELIA 06/25/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -32.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042010 CELIA 06/25/10 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY